The Application of Economic Techniques
to Real Estate Markets
It tries to describe, explain, and predict patterns of prices, supply, and demand. The closely related fields of housing economics is narrower in scope, concentrating on
residential real estate markets as does the research of
real estate trends focus on the business and structural changes impacting the industry. Both draw on partial equilibrium analysis (supply and demand), urban economics, spatial economics, extensive research, surveys and finance.
Overview of real estate markets
The main participants in real estate markets are:
The owner/user, owner, and renter comprise the demand side of the market, while the developers and renovators comprise the supply side. In order to apply simple supply and demand analysis to real estate markets a number of modifications need to be made to standard microeconomic assumptions and procedures. In particular, the unique characteristics of the real estate market must be accommodated. These characteristics include:
- Owner/User - These people are both owners and tenants. They purchase
commercial property as an
investment and also to live in or utilize as a business.
- Owner - These people are pure investors. They do not consume the
real estate that they purchase. Typically they rent out or
lease the property to someone else.
- Renter - These people are pure consumers.
- Developers - These people prepare raw land for building which results in new product for the market.
- Renovators - These people supply refurbished buildings to the market.
- Facilitators - This includes banks,
real estate brokers,
attorneys, and others that facilitate the purchase and sale of real estate.
Durability - Real estate is durable. A building can last for decades or even centuries, and the
land underneath it is practically indestructible. Because of this, real estate markets are modeled as a stock/flow market. About 98% of supply consists of the stock of existing houses, while about 2% consists of the flow of new development. The stock of real estate supply in any period is determined by the existing stock in the previous period, the rate of deterioration of the existing stock, the rate of renovation of the existing stock, and the flow of new development in the current period. The effect of real estate market adjustments tend to be mitigated by the relatively large stock of existing buildings.
- Heterogeneous - Every piece of real estate is unique, in terms of its location, in terms of the building, and in terms of its financing. This makes pricing difficult, increases search costs, creates information asymmetry and greatly restricts substitutability. To get around this problem, economists (beginning with Muth (1960)) define supply in terms of service units, that is, any physical unit can be deconstructed into the services that it provides. Olsen (1969) describes these units of housing services as an unobservable theoretical construct. Housing stock depreciates making it qualitatively different from a new building. The market equilibrating process operates across multiple quality levels. Further, the real estate market is typically divided into residential, commercial, and industrial segments. It can also be further divided into subcategories like recreational, income generating, area, historical/protected, etc.
- High Transaction costs - Buying and/or moving into a home costs much more than most types of transactions. These costs include search costs, real estate fees, moving costs, legal fees,
land transfer taxes, and deed registration fees. Transaction costs for the seller typically range between 1.5 - 6% of the purchase price. In some countries in Continental Europe, transaction costs for both buyer and seller can range between 15 - 20%.
- Long time delays - The market adjustment process is subject to time delays due to the length of time it takes to finance, design, and construct new supply, and also due to the relatively slow rate of change of demand. Because of these lags there is a great potential for disequilibrium in the short run. Adjustment mechanisms tend to be slow, relative to more fluid markets.
- Both an investment good and a consumption good - Real estate can be purchased with the expectation of attaining a return (an investment good), or with the intention of using it (a consumption good), or both. These functions can be separated (with market participants concentrating on one or the other function) or can be combined (in the case of the person that lives in a house that they own). This dual nature of the good means that it is not uncommon for people to over-invest in real estate, that is, to invest more money in an asset than it is worth on the open market.
- Immobility - Real estate is locationally immobile (save for
mobile homes, but the land underneath them is still immobile). Consumers come to the good rather than the good going to the consumer. Because of this, there can be no physical market-place. This spatial fixity means that market adjustment must occur by people moving to dwelling units, rather than the movement of the goods. For example, if tastes change and more people demand suburban houses, people must find housing in the
suburbs, because it is impossible to bring their existing house and lot to the suburb (even a mobile home owner, who could move the house, must still find a new lot). Spatial fixity combined with the close proximity of housing units in urban areas suggest the potential for externalities inherent in a given location.
Demand for housing
The main determinants of the demand for housing are demographic. However other factors like income, price of housing, cost and
availability of credit, consumer preferences, investor preferences, price of substitutes and price of compliments all play a role.
The core demographic variables are population size and population growth: the more people in the economy, the greater the demand for housing. But this is an oversimplification. It is necessary to consider family size, the age composition of the family, the number of first and second children, net migration (immigration minus emigration), non-family household formation, the number of double family households, death rates, divorce rates, and marriages. In housing economics, the elemental unit of analysis is not the individual as it is in standard partial equilibrium models. Rather, it is households that demand housing services: typically one household per house. The size and demographic composition of households is variable and not entirely exogenous. It is endogenous to the housing market in the sense that as the price of housing services increase, household size will tend also to increase.
Income is also an important determinant. Empirical measures of the income elasticity of demand in North America range from 0.5 to 0.9 (De Leeuw, F. 1971). If permanent income elasticity is measured, the results are a little higher (Kain and Quigley 1975) because transitory income varies from year-to-year and across individuals so positive transitory income will tend to cancel out negative transitory income. Many housing economists use permanent income rather than annual income because of the high cost of purchasing real estate. For many people, real estate will be the most costly item they will ever buy.
The price of housing is also an important factor. The price elasticity of the demand for housing services in North America is estimated as negative 0.7 by Polinsky and Ellwood (1979), and as negative 0.9 by Maisel, Burnham, and Austin (1971).
An individual household’s housing demand can be modeled with standard utility/choice theory. A utility function, such as U=U(X1,X2,X3,X4,...Xn), can be constructed in which the households utility is a function of various goods and services (Xs). This will be subject to a budget constraint such as P1X1+P2X2+...PnXn=Y, where Y is the households available income and the Ps are the prices for the various goods and services. The equality indicates that the money spent on all the goods and services must be equal to the available income. Because this is unrealistic, the model must be adjusted to allow for borrowing and/or saving. A measure of wealth, lifetime income, or permanent income is required. The model must also be adjusted to account for the heterogeneousness of real estate. This can be done by deconstructing the utility function. If housing services (X4) is separated into the components that comprise it (Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4,...Zn), then the utility function can be rewritten as U=U(X1,X2,X3,(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4,...Zn)...Xn) By varying the price of housing services (X4) and solving for points of optimal utility, that household's demand schedule for housing services can be constructed. Market demand is calculated by summing all individual household demands.
Supply of housing
Housing supply is produced using
land, labor, and various inputs such as electricity and building materials. The quantity of new supply is determined by the cost of these inputs, the price of the existing stock of houses, and the technology of production. For a typical
single family dwelling in suburban North America, approximate percentage costs can be broken down as: acquisition costs 10%, site improvement costs 11%, labor costs 26%, materials costs 31%, finance costs 3%, administrative costs 15%, and marketing costs 4%. Multi-unit residential dwellings typically break down as: acquisition costs 7%, site improvement costs 8%, labor costs 27%, materials costs 33%, finance costs 4%, administrative costs 17%, and marketing costs 5%. Public subdivision requirements can increase development cost by up to 3% depending on the jurisdiction. Differences in building codes account for about a 2% variation in development costs. However these
subdivision and building code costs typically increase the market value of the buildings by at least the amount of their cost outlays. A production function such as Q=f(L,N,M) can be constructed in which Q is the quantity of houses produced, N is the amount of labor employed, L is the amount of land used, and M is the amount of other materials. This production function must, however, be adjusted to account for the refurbishing and augmentation of existing buildings. To do this a second production function is constructed that includes the stock of existing housing, and their ages, as determinants. The two functions are summed yielding the total production function. Alternatively an hedonic pricing model can be regressed.
The long-run price elasticity of supply is quite high. George Fallis estimates it as 8.2 (Fallis, G. 1985), but in the short run supply tends to be very price inelastic. Supply price elasticity depends on the elasticity of substitution and supply restrictions. There is significant substitutability both between land and materials, and between labor and materials. In high-value locations, multi-story concrete buildings are typically built to reduce the amount of expensive land used. As labor costs increased since the 1950s, new materials and capital intensive techniques have been employed to reduce the amount of relatively expensive labor used. However supply restrictions can significantly affect substitutability. In particular the lack of supply of skilled labor (and labor union requirements), can constrain the substitution from capital to labor. Land availability can also constrain substitutability if the area of interest is delineated (that is, the larger the area, the more suppliers of land, and the more substitution that is possible). Land use controls such as zoning bylaws can also reduce land substitutability.
The adjustment mechanism
The basic adjustment mechanism is a stock/flow model to reflect the fact that about 98% the market is existing stock and about 2% is the flow of new buildings.
In the diagram to the right, the stock of housing supply is presented in the left panel while the new flow is in the right panel. There are four steps in the basic adjustment mechanism. First, the initial equilibrium price (Ro) is determined by the intersection of the supply of existing housing stock (SH) and the demand for housing (D). This rent is then translated into value (Vo) via discounting cash flows. Value is calculated by dividing current period rents by the discount rate, that is, as a perpetuity. Then value is compared to construction costs (CC) in order to determine whether profitable opportunities exist for developers. The intersection of construction costs and the value of housing services determine the maximum level of new housing starts (HSo). Finally the amount of housing starts in the current period is added to the available stock of housing in the next period. In the next period, supply curve SH will shift to the right by amount HSo.
Adjustment with depreciation
The diagram to the right shows the effects of depreciation. If the supply of existing housing deteriorates due to wear, then the stock of housing supply depreciates. Because of this, the supply of housing (SHo) will shift to the left (to SH1) resulting in a new equilibrium price of R1. The increase of prices from Ro to R1 will shift the value function up (from Vo to V1). As a result, more houses can be produced profitably and housing starts will increase (from HSo to HS1). Then the supply of housing will shift back to its initial position (SH1 to SHo).
Increase in demand
The diagram on the right shows the effects of an increase in demand in the short run. If there is an increase in the demand for housing, such as the shift from Do to D1 there will be either a price or quantity adjustment, or both. For the price to stay the same, the supply of housing must increase. That is, supply SHo must increase by HS.
Increase in costs
The diagram on the left shows the effects of an increase in costs in the short-run. If construction costs increase (say from CCo to CC1), developers will find their business less profitable and will be more selective in their ventures. In addition some developers may leave the industry. The quantity of housing starts will decrease (HSo to HS1). This will eventually reduce the level of supply (from SHo to SH1) as the existing stock of housing depreciates. Prices will tend to rise (from Ro to R1).
Real estate financing
There are different ways of real estate financing: governmental and commercial sources and institutions. A home buyer or builder can obtain financial aid from savings and loan associations, commercial banks, savings banks,
mortgage bankers and brokers, life insurance companies, credit unions, federal agencies, individual investors, and builders.
Savings and loan associations
Main article: Savings and loan association
The most important purpose of these institutions is to make
mortgage loans on residential property. These organizations, which also are known as savings associations, building and loan associations, cooperative banks (in New England), and homestead associations (in Louisiana), are the primary source of financial assistance to a large segment of American homeowners. As home-financing institutions, they give primary attention to single-family residences and are equipped to make loans in this area.
Some of the most important characteristics of a savings and loan association are:
- It is generally a locally owned and privately managed home-financing institution.
- It receives individuals' savings and uses these funds to make long-term amortized loans to home purchasers.
- It makes loans for the construction, purchase, repair, or refinancing of houses.
- It is state or federally chartered.
Main article: Commercial bank
Due to changes in banking laws and policies, commercial banks are increasingly active in home financing. In acquiring mortgages on real estate, these institutions follow two main practices:
In addition, dealer service companies, which were originally used to obtain car loans for permanent lenders such as commercial banks, wanted to broaden their activity beyond their local area. In recent years, however, such companies have concentrated on acquiring mobile home loans in volume for both commercial banks and savings and loan associations. Service companies obtain these loans from retail dealers, usually on a nonrecourse basis. Almost all bank/service company agreements contain a credit insurance policy that protects the lender if the consumer defaults.
- First, some of the banks maintain active and well-organized departments whose primary function is to compete actively for real estate loans. In areas lacking specialized real estate financial institutions, these banks become the source for residential and farm mortgage loans.
- Second, the banks acquire mortgages by simply purchasing them from
mortgage bankers or dealers.
Main article: Savings bank
These depository financial institutions are federally chartered, primarily accept consumer deposits, and make home mortgage loans.
Mortgage bankers and brokers
Main article: Mortgage broker
Mortgage brokers are companies or individuals, who originate mortgage loans, sell them to other investors, service the monthly payments, and may act as agents to dispense funds for taxes and insurance.
Mortgage brokers basically present the consumer home
buyer with their attempts to find the best loan from a variety of loan sources. Their income comes from the
lender making the loan plus an extra fee, percent of the
Life insurance companies
Life insurance companies are another source of financial assistance. These companies lend on real estate as one form of investment and adjust their portfolios from time to time to reflect changing economic conditions. Individuals seeking a loan from an insurance company can deal directly with a local branch office or with a local real estate broker who acts as loan correspondent for one or more insurance companies.
Main article: Credit union
These cooperative financial institutions are organized by people who share a common bond — for example, employees of a company, a labor union, or a religious group. Some credit unions offer home loans in addition to other financial services.
Federally supported agencies
Under certain conditions and fund limitations the
Veterans Administration makes direct loans to creditworthy veterans in housing credit shortage areas designated by the VA's administrator. Such areas are generally rural areas and small cities and towns not near the metropolitan or commuting areas of large cities — areas where GI loans from private institutions are not available.
The federally supported agencies referred to here do not include the so-called second-layer lenders who enter the scene after the mortgage is arranged between the lending institution and the individual home buyer.
Real estate investment trusts
Main article: Real estate investment trust
Real estate investment trusts (REITs), which began when the Real Estate Investment Trust Act became effective January 1, 1961, are available. REITs, like savings and loan associations, are committed to real estate lending and can and do serve the national real estate market, although some specialization has occurred in their activities.
In the U.S., REITs generally pay little or no federal income tax, but are subject to a number of special requirements set forth in the Internal Revenue Code, one of which is the requirement to annually distribute at least 90% of their taxable income in the form of dividends to shareholders.
Main article: Creative real estate investing
Individual investors constitute a fairly large but somewhat declining source of money for home
mortgage loans. Experienced observers claim that these lenders prefer shorter term obligations and usually restrict their loans to less than two-thirds of the value of the residential property. Likewise, building contractors sometimes accept second mortgages in part payment of the construction price of a home if the purchaser is unable to raise the total amount of down payment above the first mortgage money offered.
In addition, homebuyers or builders can save their money using
FSBO in order not to pay extra fees.
Categories: Urban economics | Real estate